The struggle under the Persian carpet: infighting in Iran
Winston Churchill once famously described watching Soviet politics from abroad as “like watching two dogs fighting under a carpet”. It feels slightly similar today, watching Iranian politics from the West. There is clearly a struggle going on, underneath the Persian carpet, but exactly who is doing what to whom remains opaque.
Take last night’s television interview with President Hassan Rouhani. The president’s appearance was delayed, prompting his staff to tweet that he had been “prevented live discussion w/people…which was scheduled for an hour ago.”
Head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Zarghami, prevented live discussion w/ people on #IRIB1 which was scheduled for an hour ago
— Hassan Rouhani (@HassanRouhani) February 5, 2014
Eventually, the interview with Mr Rouhani proceeded and the president refused to elaborate about who or what had caused the hold-up. However, he did make some fairly incendiary points – complaining about “shocking corruption”, pointing to the intimidation of those who support his nuclear negotiations and remarking pointedly that it is a shame that Iran, with the world’s largest reserves of gas, is unable to meet domestic demand.
Watch #Live Now: Discussing current affairs with peoplehttp://t.co/Js3VnR7sWQ
— Hassan Rouhani (@HassanRouhani) February 5, 2014
So what should outsiders conclude from all this? The obvious point is that there really is a political struggle going on, inside Iran, between reformists and hardliners. This will hardly come as news to those who follow Iranian politics. But it is an idea that is still disputed by some in the West, who argue that it is a mistake to regard President Rouhani as a reformist, in any real sense. So, for example, when the president appeared at Davos last month and indirectly confirmed the idea that he is facing significant domestic opposition to his efforts to secure a nuclear deal, some of his audience were sceptical. They reasoned that the Iranian leader might simply be talking up his domestic problems, to avoid making concessions.
The apparent confirmation that the domestic opposition to Rouhani is real and bitter should affect the way that the US and its allies approach the next round of the nuclear negotiations. Put simply, they really have to recognise that for President Rouhani, as for President Obama, there are domestic constraints on how far he can go – at least initially. It is also important to the Iranian president’s domestic position that he is seen to deliver on his promise to start loosening the choke-hold of economic sanctions.
Last night’s delayed television interview was just the most dramatic sign of the political struggles taking place under the Persian carpet. Najmeh Bozorgmehr’s fascinating dispatch from Tehran this morning details the case of a university professor, hauled in for interrogation, simply for questioning the utility of Iran’s nuclear programme. And indeed, in last night’s interview, President Rouhani said that people who supported his negotiations were sometimes too intimidated to express their support in public.
It all makes President Obama’s problems with Congress over Iran look relatively straightforward.
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