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Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Scottish independence

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-24707317

Scottish independence: What do we know about the SNP's vision?


The SNP-run Scottish government is soon to publish its long-awaited case for independence - in the form of a white paper.

Background and analysis

  • For more on the Scottish independence referendum go to the BBC's Scotland's Future page.
That comes 10 months before the Scottish independence referendum taking place on 18 September, next year. Voters in Scotland will be asked the "yes/no" question: "Should Scotland be an independent country?"
We already have a few insights into the SNP's vision, should it be elected as the first government of an independent Scotland - so what tasters has the party revealed so far?

1. 'IT'S SCOTLAND'S OIL'

oil
The old ones are often considered the best - the SNP's longest-running and most famous slogan continues to be the cornerstone of its case for independence.
A study for the Scottish government has recommended setting up two oil funds - one to cope with the volatility of oil prices and the other to fund long-term investments to make Scotland better (like the one Norway has, which is worth £470bn).
But the UK government says it's not credible to base the case for independence on something that's going to eventually run out, and questions have been raised about when and how an independent Scotland could start paying into a fund while the country is in deficit.

2. MONEY, MONEY, MONEY

banknotes
Financial strife in the Eurozone means the SNP's plan of an independent Scotland joining the single currency (subject to a referendum) is off the table for now.
Instead, they've proposed continuing to use the pound as part of a "sterling zone" - a policy which would include the Bank of England continuing to oversee monetary policy and set interest rates.
First Minister Alex Salmond says this is a perfectly sensible approach and has suggested an independent Scotland could have a seat on the bank's monetary policy committee, or have a role in appointments.
Critics ask why an independent Scotland would want its interest rates set by what would effectively be a foreign country.

3. DEFENDING THE REALM

Soldiers
Given the SNP's opposition to all things nuclear is as longstanding as its support for independence - the UK's Trident missile submarines, based on the Clyde, would be sent "doon the watter" to England. Permanently.
And don't say "army". The SNP's 15,000-strong "defence force" would aid overseas peacekeeping and disaster relief operations, but would not be sent into contentious conflicts like the Iraq War.
Faslane Naval Base, which would otherwise be awfully empty without those nuclear submarines, would become Scotland's naval HQ under a £2.5bn defence and security programme.
The Scottish government insists defence jobs and bases would be secured under independence. But UK Defence Secretary Philip Hammond says it's "laughable" to simply subsume British military units into a Scottish Defence Force.

4. FAIR AND WELL

Scottish Parliament building
The SNP often tells us the UK is "one of the most unequal societies in the developed world."
The party's vision under independence is a commitment to a "fairer" society - so what policies would they pursue?
So far, Alex Salmond has said the SNP would ensure the minimum wage would rise with at least the level of inflation, to allow people to keep pace with rises in the cost of living.
And the first minister has also pledged to reverse controversial UK government welfare reforms, including what critics call the "bedroom tax".

5. JOINING THE CLUB

UN building
No small independent nation would be worth its salt without seats at the top tables - the SNP says Scotland would have its own, strong voice in the United Nations, Nato and the European Union, where it's currently represented by the UK government.
The SNP says joining Nato - a pro-nuclear security alliance - would be dependent on Scotland's refusal to host such weapons and, given that 26 out of the 29 Nato countries are non-nuclear, Alex Salmond says this is a sound approach.
His opponents have questioned whether Nato would accept this condition, and if the nation would ever be able to get rid of Trident if it joined up.
When it comes to the EU, the SNP government's one-time claim that Scotland's membership would be "automatic" has since given way to a strategy of negotiating its position "from within".
There's never been any serious suggestion an independent Scotland wouldn't be allowed to become an EU member, but some say it could take longer and be more complicated than the SNP has previously set out.

6. GRANDDAD, WE LOVE YOU

Clive Dunn
When it comes to looking after the older generation, the SNP says basic state pensions would be paid "on time and in full", with the same level of protection that currently exists.
And from 2016, new pensioners will get £160 a week - making them £1.10 better off than those in the rest of the UK.
In the first year of an independent Scotland, the SNP would embark on an exercise to consider when the state pension age should kick in - a pledge which comes as the UK government is thinking about increasing it from 65 to 67 as it faces the reality of an ageing population.
The UK government argues the SNP is still ducking the difficult pension questions and says it's still to reveal the price tag for the pensions system.

7. YOU'VE GOT MAIL

Post box
The UK government decided to float the Royal Mail on the London Stock Exchange to allow it to stay competitive.
The SNP didn't like that, and has pledged the service's red letter day will come when it is re-nationalised in an independent Scotland.
Mr Salmond's announcement of the policy in September was a (pretty significant) step on from the previous position of his finance secretary, John Swinney, who said it was "impossible to give a definitive answer" on the future of the Royal Mail, because he didn't know what state the service would be in after privatisation.
Nevertheless, the SNP says re-nationalisation would remove a serious risk to the economy and rural communities - opposition parties say they're still waiting to hear how much it will cost.

8. BILLS, BILLS, BILLS

energy bills
In the current climate, few things get people hotter under the collar than the price of their energy bills, and the SNP says it can cut those by 5% - or about £70 - a year through removing green charges.
Every year, the Scottish government puts about £80m into schemes to fight climate change, while a further £120m comes from a Westminster-designed scheme - paid for by a levy on gas and electricity bills.
The SNP says it would remove the energy saving measures and the warm home discount from energy bills, replaced by a more joined-up approach with funding for fuel poverty schemes - worth up to £200m per year - coming directly from government.

9. 'PASSPORTS, PLEASE!'

Passport
The SNP insists there would be no checks or customs posts while crossing the border into England and that Scotland would become part of the Common Travel Area, which has existed between the UK and the Republic of Ireland, and the Isle of Man, Jersey and Guernsey, for many decades.
That means no passports would be required to travel across these borders, as at present, while European and international travel would be subject to the same checks, as at present.
The SNP also says people would be able to get a Scottish passport after independence - whether the government in the rest of the UK would agree to issue them isn't yet clear.

10. BY THE PEOPLE

crowd of people
In the event of independence, the SNP says much of the above would be enshrined in a new Scottish constitution.
The idea is that a Scotland based on democracy and social justice would be contained in a document that the people would help write and then sign up to, offering the kind of protection afforded to the citizens in countries like Germany, Denmark and Sweden.
Former UK chancellor Alistair Darling says he's "innately suspicious of written constitutions".
Mr Darling, leader of the Better Together campaign for the Union, says releasing such a document without the resources to back it up is "hot air".


What does independence even mean for Scotland?

 
We are being asked to give up the benefits of a full UK partnership, says Alistair Darling
View from the top of The Mound
There are only ten months left before Scots vote in a referendum on national independence. Yet Scotland’s nationalistshave yet to give credible and convincing answers to fundamental questions about what leaving the United Kingdom would actually mean.
Next week, they will publish a much-delayed White Paper which, according to the Scottish National party, will provide the answers to every question. We are told it will be a 700 page document. I fear it will be more fiction than fact.
 The most fundamental question to answer is simple: which currency will Scotland use after independence? First Minister Alex Salmond has claimed repeatedly that Scotland would enter into a Eurozone-style currency union in partnership with the rest of the UK. He has made this claim because he is desperate to reassure an increasingly sceptical population that there is nothing to worry about and that nothing will change after independence. We can keep the Queen and the pound.
Not surprisingly, this strategy is now falling apart. Last week the head of the Scottish government’s strategy unit said that Mr Salmond’s promise to keep the UK pound could not be guaranteed. After all, Scotland and the rest of the UK would become foreign countries after independence. For a currency union to work, both sides would have to agree to lock themselves into a legal straitjacket in which each country must agree to each others’ spending and tax levels.
It is not clear why either side would want this. Indeed, as we see in Europe, a currency union takes you inextricably towards political union, the very thing that Mr Salmond wants to end in the UK. So what is the nationalists’ Plan B? They must tell us next week what they would do.
They could adopt the euro, but that is as popular in Scotland as it is in Essex. They could invent a brand new currency. But Salmond knows this could cause panic: savers would have no idea how much their money would be worth in a new currency. What would investors make of a new currency issued by a new country where the First Minister has promised that he will refuse to honour Scotland’s debts as a negotiating tactic to scare London?
The fallback looks like using the pound in the same way as Ecuador uses the US dollar. In that scenario, Scotland’s interest rate would be fixed by a foreign bank – the Bank of England. That brings us to the problems that Scotland’s financial services industry will face. How long could Scottish banks and insurers hope to compete without a central bank? Furthermore, today the sector sells most of its products south of the border. There is a single regulatory regime. An independent Scotland would be required by Europe to have a separate regime with all the added complexities and costs that would involve.
There are always uncertainties in forecasting, but this week’s Institute for Fiscal Studies’ report has highlighted a fundamental problem for Scotland. Our population is ageing more rapidly than the rest of the UK. Who will pay the unfunded state and public pensions when they fall due? How do we work out who paid what and where? Occupational pensions must be fully funded north and south of the border; who will meet this cost?
All of this comes when receipts from the North Sea oil fields, which currently account for nearly 20 per cent of Scotland’s tax take, are in long term decline. The truth is there is no money to throw around – despite the nationalists’ claims.
There are other questions too. We now know Scotland will have to apply to re-enter the EU. What would be the new terms and conditions?
We need answers, not mere assertion. We are being asked to give up the opportunities and the security that come from being a full partner in the UK. The nationalists fear that Scots’ natural caution may win the day. I expect they are already looking for ways of reassuring, insisting there is nothing to worry about. The very fact that they can offer not definitive answers to these fundamental questions should make us ask them all the harder.

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